Show simple item record

contributor authorDraxler, Roland R.
date accessioned2017-06-09T14:08:41Z
date available2017-06-09T14:08:41Z
date copyright2003/02/01
date issued2003
identifier issn0894-8763
identifier otherams-13225.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4148652
description abstractA Lagrangian transport and dispersion model was modified to generate multiple simulations from a single meteorological dataset. Each member of the simulation was computed by assuming a ±1-gridpoint shift in the horizontal direction and a ±250-m shift in the vertical direction of the particle position, with respect to the meteorological data. The configuration resulted in 27 ensemble members. Each member was assumed to have an equal probability. The model was tested by creating an ensemble of daily average air concentrations for 3 months at 75 measurement locations over the eastern half of the United States during the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX). Two generic graphical displays were developed to summarize the ensemble prediction and the resulting concentration probabilities for a specific event: a probability-exceed plot and a concentration-probability plot. Although a cumulative distribution of the ensemble probabilities compared favorably with the measurement data, the resulting distribution was not uniform. This result was attributed to release height sensitivity. The trajectory ensemble approach accounts for about 41%?47% of the variance in the measurement data. This residual uncertainty is caused by other model and data errors that are not included in the ensemble design.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleEvaluation of an Ensemble Dispersion Calculation
typeJournal Paper
journal volume42
journal issue2
journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology
identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0308:EOAEDC>2.0.CO;2
journal fristpage308
journal lastpage317
treeJournal of Applied Meteorology:;2003:;volume( 042 ):;issue: 002
contenttypeFulltext


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record