Can Climate Forecasts for the Growing Season be Valuable to Crop Producers: Some General Considerations and an Illinois Pilot Study

Abstract

A three-step process is proposed to be most efficient for generating skillful climate forecasts which could reduce the adverse socioeconomic effects of climatic variability. These steps involve identifying weather-sensitive economic sectors, documenting the flexibility of these sectors with respect to likely forecast information, and the development of accordingly focused forecast capabilities. An illustration of the types of information needed to identify sector flexibility is provided for Midwest crop production. Finally, a pilot study using actual farmer data for east central Illinois suggests that increased corn yields could have resulted if producers had been forewarned of the benign weather conditions experienced during the 1979 growing season. This implies that skillful, properly structured climate forecasts may be useful to Midwest crop producers.