Model for Recurrence Rate of Hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

A model and estimation procedure are proposed for the recurrence rate of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The model and the estimation procedure are based on the representation of the hurricane tracks as a locally linear line process. The spatial variation of the intensity of the process is estimated through a kernel estimation procedure. The optimal degree of smoothness is selected through a resampling procedure and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulations demonstrate that the model and estimation procedures can detect statistically significant spatial variations in the rate of occurrence of hurricanes. The emphasis of the study is on storms that have affected the offshore areas between the northwest Florida panhandle and the Texas coast. The optimal model indicates that the spatial variation of the recurrence rate is statistically significant and that the highest frequency of hurricanes occurs offshore west of New Orleans. The implications from a hurricane hazard point of view are most significant for deepwater offshore projects, while the recurrence rate appears to be almost constant along the western coast of the Gulf in shallower waters.