Browsing Weather and Forecasting by Title
Now showing items 1-20 of 3043
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20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado: Damage Survey and Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he tornado that affected Moore, Oklahoma, and the surrounding area on 20 May 2013 was an extreme event. It traveled 23 km and damage was up to 1.7 km wide. The tornado killed 24 people, injured over 200 others, and damaged ... -
2010 Western North Pacific Typhoon Season: Seasonal Overview and Forecast Using a Track-Pattern-Based Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ourteen named tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the western North Pacific (WNP) in 2010, representing the lowest count since 1951. Both low activity during the typhoon season (June?October) and quiescence during the pre- ... -
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from a High-Resolution Version of the GFDL fvGFS Model: Evaluation of Track, Intensity, and Structure
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had several high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), including multiple cases of rapid intensification (RI). A high-resolution nested version of the GFDL finite-volume dynamical core ... -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Composite Statistics and Key Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2021) -
31 May 2013 El Reno Tornadoes: Advantages of Rapid-Scan Phased-Array Radar Data from a Warning Forecaster’s Perspective
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 31 May 2013, a supercell produced a tornado rated as 3 on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF3) near El Reno, Oklahoma, which was sampled by the S-band phased-array radar (PAR) at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, ... -
A 10-Year Survey of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Lightning Bursts and Their Relationship to Intensity Change
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis study seeks to reconcile discrepancies between previous studies analyzing the relationship between lightning and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. Inner-core lightning bursts (ICLBs) were identified from ... -
A 10-Yr Climatology Relating the Locations of Reported Tornadoes to the Quadrants of Upper-Level Jet Streaks
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Observations and numerical model simulations associate rising motions below the right-entrance and left-exit quadrants of an upper-level straight jet streak with the development of convection and severe weather. The ... -
A 10-yr Monthly Lightning Climatology of Florida: 1986–95
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)Average cloud-to-ground lightning flash density values for Florida have been calculated for the 10-yr period 1986?95. An annual mean map and monthly mean maps were constructed from a database exceeding 25 million flashes. ... -
A 3DVAR-Based Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Predictions
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)combined tropical cyclone dynamic initialization?three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (TCDI?3DVAR) is proposed. The specific procedure for the new initialization scheme is described as follows. First, a ... -
A 4-Yr Climatology of Cold-Season Bow Echoes over the Continental United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A search of radar mosaics and level-II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data revealed 51 cold-season (October?April) bow echoes that occurred in the contiguous United States from 1997?98 to 2000?01. Proximity ... -
A 5-yr Climatology of Tornado False Alarms
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)uring 2008 approximately 75% of tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) were false alarms. This study investigates some of the climatological trends in the issuance of false alarms and highlights ... -
A Baseline Climatology of Sounding-Derived Supercell andTornado Forecast Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)All of the 0000 UTC soundings from the United States made during the year 1992 that have nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) are examined. Soundings are classified as being associated with nonsupercell ... -
A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Framework for Correcting Reporting Bias in the U.S. Tornado Database
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado database, generated from NCEI?s Storm Data publication, is indispensable for assessing U.S. tornado risk and investigating tornado?climate connections. Maximizing the value of this ... -
A Bayesian Neural Network for Severe-Hail Size Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2001)The National Severe Storms Laboratory has developed algorithms that compute a number of Doppler radar and environmental attributes known to be relevant for the detection/prediction of severe hail. Based on these attributes, ... -
A Bayesian Quantitative Precipitation Nowcast Scheme
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Very short-period quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) or nowcast schemes provide deterministic output that fails to convey explicit measures of the uncertainty in the forecast. Presented here is a forecast methodology ... -
A Bayesian Representation of the Storm Approach Probability Based on Operational Track Forecast Errors
(American Meteorological Society, 2020) -
A Bow Echo and Severe Weather Associated with a Kona Low in Hawaii
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)On 2 November 1995 a kona low formed to the northwest of Hawaii. During the following 48 h a series of convective rainbands developed on the southeastern side of the low as it slowly moved eastward. On the afternoon of 3 ... -
A Calibrated and Consistent Combination of Probabilistic Forecasts for the Exceedance of Several Precipitation Thresholds Using Neural Networks
(American Meteorological Society, 2021) -
A Case Study in Modeling Low-Lying Inversions and Stratocumulus Cloud Cover in the Bay of Biscay
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)any regional forecasting models struggle to simulate low-lying strong temperature inversions. To understand this apparent deficit for forecast improvements, a case study of a strong inversion occurring in the Bay of Biscay ... -
A Case Study Investigating the Low Summertime CAPE Behavior in the Global Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2024)