Great Lakes Ice Dynamics Simulation

Abstract

A previously developed thermodynamic model for ice formation, growth, and dissipation has been extended to account for ice transport and deformation due to wind and water stresses. This ice dynamics simulation model has been developed for application to the Great Lakes to aid in forecasting ice conditions during winter navigation. The method of approach utilizes the macroscopic continuum hypothesis for the fragmented ice field. The external driving force includes the time‐dependent wind and water current fields. The internal ice resistance is represented by a viscous‐type constitutive law employing both shear and bulk ice viscosities. Several alternative empirical or semi‐empirical expressions are considered for representing the internal ice pressure. The model has been applied to Lake Erie under varying wind conditions. Model output reproduces the characteristic features of ice field movement and deformation. Calibration of the model is now underway using observed data from specific Lake Erie ice transport events.