Extreme Impact Contamination Events Sampling for Water Distribution Systems Security

Abstract

In recent years, drinking water distribution systems security has become a major concern. To protect public health and minimize the effected community by a contaminant intrusion, water quality needs to be continuously monitored and analyzed. Contamination warning systems are being designed to detect and characterize contaminant intrusions into water distribution systems. Since contamination injections can occur at any node at any time the theoretical number of possible injection events, even for a medium-size network, is huge and grows substantially with system size. As a result of that contamination warning systems are designed based on a subset of contamination events, which is not necessarily the most critical. To cope with this difficulty a method derived from cross entropy, which originates from rare event simulations, is proposed. The suggested algorithm is able to sample efficiently a rare subset (i.e., a subset of events with a small probability to occur, but with an extreme impact) of the entire set of possible contamination events. The suggested methodology is demonstrated using an illustrative example and two water distribution systems example applications.