Reliability-Based Simulation-Optimization Model for Multireservoir Hydropower Systems Operations: Khersan Experience

Abstract

A common method for assessing the energy potential of hydropower systems in Iran is the sequential streamflow routing with control on the energy-yield reliability. The method results in developing a reliability-based simulation (RBS) model that is used to analyze single-reservoir hydropower systems. In most of the cascade hydropower systems in the country, a single-reservoir RBS model is usually employed in the design and operation of each of the systems reservoirs. This paper presents a multireservoir RBS model considering the integrated operation of the systems. The model employs the general algorithm of the single-reservoir RBS model; however, with a single-period optimization submodel in determining releases from reservoirs during the system simulation. The objective function of the submodels minimizes the sum of reservoir releases and/or maximizes the sum of reservoir storages in each of the time periods, subject to a reliability constraint on the system’s energy yield. The single and multireservoir RBS models are applied in the Khersan hydropower system located in Iran as a case study. The multireservoir RBS, compared to the single-reservoir model, results in 7.9% excess firm-energy yield in reliability of 90%.