Urban Bicycle Route Safety Rating Model Application in Jersey City, New Jersey

Abstract

Bicyclists consistently identify safety as one of their highest priorities in selecting bicycle routes. If transportation officials want to succeed in achieving the goal of increasing nonvehicular modes of travel, bicycle routes must be provided that are convenient and safe. In this study, a pilot study was undertaken to develop a tool to compare the relative safety of alternate bicycle routes. A multivariate logistic model was developed for urban bicycle routes based on four years of bicycle crash data from Jersey City, N.J. The resulting model meets a 90% confidence level by using various operational and physical factors (traffic volume, lane width, population density, highway classification, the presence of vertical grades, one-way streets, and truck routes) to predict the severity of an injury sustained by a bicyclist that would result from a motor vehicle crash occurring at a specific location. The model was used to rate proposed bicycle routes in Jersey City, N.J., assuming that a bicycle crash on the safest route would be the least likely to produce severe injuries. Both existing conditions and mitigated scenarios were rated and compared with field observations.