Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: Occurrence-Mechanism Approach

Abstract

At signalized intersections, rear-end accidents are frequently the predominant accident type. These accidents result from the combination lead-vehicle deceleration and the ineffective response of the following vehicle’s driver to this deceleration. This paper mathematically represents this process, by expressing accident probability as the product of the probability of the lead vehicle decelerating and the probability of the driver in the following failing to respond in time to avoid a collision. Using this premise, a model of rear-end accident probabilities is estimated using information on traffic flow, traffic regulations, roadway geometrics, and human factors from four-legged signalized intersections in Tokyo, Japan. Estimation findings provide some important preliminary evidence for the development of countermeasures to reduce the frequency of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections.