Synthetic Models for Through Trips in Small Urban Areas

Abstract

This research studied the accuracy of borrowed synthetic models for estimating through trips in small urban areas. Three sets of models—NCI, NC2, and KY, which were previously developed in North Carolina and Kentucky, were evaluated as a part of this study. All three models were essentially two‐stage models. The first stage estimated the number of through trip ends at each cordon station. The second stage distributed the through trip ends calculated in the first stage from each station to all other destination stations. The basic features of all the models were compared to bring out their similarities and differences. The models were then tested with the help of data obtained from 14 small urban areas in North Carolina. The trip end estimation models were tested on all the 14 urban areas, and the trip distribution models were tested on six of these urban areas. The estimated through trips were compared with the actual through trips obtained from origin‐destination (O‐D) surveys to assess the accuracy of the models. Additional analyses were performed to determine the sensitivity of functional classification for all three models, and the sensitivity of route continuity on the NC2 model. The accuracy of the models in predicting large volumes of through trips was found to be acceptable. It was concluded that the models are useful tools for quick estimation of through trip patterns in small urban areas.