Forecasting Intersection Traffic Volumes

Abstract

Three growth factor models of the type developed in early transportation planning theory were applied to the estimation of the individual 1‐way traffic movement volumes at 4‐leg intersections. The models use as input the traffic volume on each leg of the intersection and produce a balanced solution to the problem which models in common use do not produce. Historical data were used to test the models for use in making seasonal intersection volume adjustments and for estimating future intersection volumes due to areawide traffic growth. Results for the data studied were found to be superior to two commonly used models. The models are applicable for use in computerized suburban annual traffic counting and operational analysis systems. The basic structure of such a system is described. Such a system would produce information useful as an element in the priority programming of intersection and roadway capacity projects. A new type of traffic counter is described that would be beneficial for data collection.