Markov Model for Seismic Reliability Analysis of Degrading Structures

Abstract

A Markov model is proposed to evaluate seismic performance and sensitivity to initial state of structural systems and determine the vulnerability of structures exposed to one or more earthquakes. The method of analysis is based on the seismic hazard modeled by a filtered Poisson process, nonlinear dynamic analysis for estimating structural response to earthquakes, uncertainty in initial damage state, and failure conditions incorporating damage accumulation during consecutive seismic events. Simple structures designed by the seismic design code are used to illustrate the proposed method. Effects of uncertainty in the initial state of these systems on seismic reliability are also investigated.