Monthly Evaporation for Milford Lake in Kansas

Abstract

A weekly evaporation time series generated by the mass transfer method for Milford Lake displays a predominant annual cycle with low evaporation in spring and winter and high evaporation in summer and fall. A mathematical model for the time series is developed. The model consists of a mean weekly component represented by a Fourier approximation and a stationary random residue represented by an autoregressive model. From the synthetic evaporation series, the frequency distribution is obtained. A sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated evaporation is most sensitive to changes in water temperature.