Comparison of Risk Calculation Methods for a Culvert

Abstract

A comparative study of eight different risk calculation methods has been performed on the occurrence probability of inadequate capacity of a culvert to pass floods. The five basic risk calculation methods used in this study are the mean-value first-order second-moment method, advanced first-order second-moment method, point estimate method, Latin hypercube sampling method, and Monte Carlo simulation. Two options each for the point estimation and Monte Carlo methods are also investigated. Building upon the first four basic calculation methods, three additional methods are suggested. They are the first-order second-moment mixed mode method, generalized mixed mode method, and significant component method. Within each of the first four basic methods risks are calculated, whenever possible, using two definitions of failure parameter, i.e., (1) the performance function