New Point Estimate Method for Water Resources Modeling

Abstract

A new point estimate method (PEM) suitable for estimating the statistical moments of the response of water resources models is illustrated. The importance of using the correct approach for modeling spatial variability in water resources modeling is also demonstrated using the PEM and the simulation of a backwater profile in an open channel. Random field models are conceptually more realistic than single random variable methods currently used for determining spatial variability. Although the mean model response using the single random variable model or the random field model is similar, there is significant variance reduction with the use of the random field model. The proposed point estimate method used to estimate the moments of the response of the backwater model proved to be efficient. It does not require knowledge of the underlying distribution of the random variables, and is an alternative method suitable in water resource modeling.