Recurrence Interval of Long Hydrologic Events

Abstract

Several empirical procedures available at present to define the recurrence interval or probability of occurrence of long hydrologic events are shown to give inconsistent results. An analytical procedure is developed to determine the recurrence interval of non‐overlapping sums and the relationship between recurrence interval and probability is established for long duration events. Using synthetic data, the above methodology is extended to determining the recurrence interval of overlapping sums which are of interest to hydrologists and water engineers. The procedure is illustrated using data from five Australian streams for both annual and monthly information.