Evaluating Risk in Construction–Schedule Model (ERIC–S): Construction Schedule Risk Model

Abstract

Research was undertaken to develop a method to assist in the determination of the lower and upper activity duration values for schedule risk analysis by program evaluation and review technique analysis or Monte Carlo simulation. A belief network was the modeling environment used for this purpose, and the resulting model was named Evaluating Risk in Construction–Schedule Model. The development of the belief network model consisted of four steps. First, construction schedule risks were identified through a literature review, an expert review, and a group review by a team of experts. Second, cause effect relationships among these risks were identified through an expert survey. This led to the development of the structure of belief network model. Third, probabilities for various combinations of parents for each risk variable were obtained through an expert interview survey and incorporated into the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed. The model was tested using 17 case studies with very good results.