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RIS“Jumpiness” of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS Control and Ensemble-Mean Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This work investigates the inconsistency between forecasts issued at different times but valid for the same time, and shows that ensemble-mean forecasts are less inconsistent than corresponding control forecasts. The ...
An Assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal Winter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractEarly awareness of extreme precipitation can provide the time necessary to make adequate event preparations. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that condenses the forecast ...
The Effect of Reference Climatology on Global Flood Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) is a preoperational suite performing daily streamflow simulations to detect severe floods in large river basins. GloFAS defines the severity of a flood event with respect to ...
How Well Do Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Configurations Represent Hydrology?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractLand surface models (LSMs) have traditionally been designed to focus on providing lower-boundary conditions to the atmosphere with less focus on hydrological processes. State-of-the-art application of LSMs includes ...
Building a Multimodel Flood Prediction System with the TIGGE Archive
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n the last decade operational probabilistic ensemble flood forecasts have become common in supporting decision-making processes leading to risk reduction. Ensemble forecasts can assess uncertainty, but they are limited to ...