Abstract: Errors in numerical weather forecasts can be attributed to two causes: deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. Understanding of the characteristics of the growth of forecast spread related ...

Abstract: The minimal three-dimensional tropical cyclone model developed by Zhu et al. is used to explore the role of shallow convection, precipitation-cooled downdrafts, and the vertical transport of momentum by deep convection on ...

Abstract: The behavior of convection and the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is compared in two simulations from the same global climate model but with two very different treatments of convection: one has a conventional parameterization ...

Abstract: A minimal 3D numerical model designed for basic studies of tropical cyclone behavior is described. The model is formulated in σ coordinates on an f or ? plane and has three vertical levels, one characterizing a shallow ...

Abstract: The interaction between a tropical cyclone and the ocean is investigated using a minimal three-dimensional tropical cyclone model coupled with a two-layer ocean model. Two representations for entrainment into the ocean ...

Abstract: he skill with which a coupled ocean?atmosphere model is able to predict precipitation over a range of time scales (days to months) is analyzed. For a fair comparison across the seamless range of scales, the verification ...