Abstract: A new method is proposed for estimation of autocorrelations from daily values of a continuous meteorological variable (e.g., temperature) over a selected period for many years. It has the following two advantages over the ...

Abstract: The thin-plate smoothing spline model is a mathematically elegant method for surface estimations that has been progressively developed over the last decade. A summary description of the method is given. The model smooths ...

Abstract: Detailed maps of the date of the first and last frost, the length of the frost-free period, and the number of days of frost during spring have been produced for the Otago region of New Zealand. These frost occurrence ...

Abstract: A statistical scheme for predicting New Zealand seasonal-mean temperatures at the beginning of each season has been developed. It is significantly more skillful (in terms of the percentage explained variance) than earlier ...

Abstract: Recently, a single-site stochastic precipitation model called ?the mixture of generalized chain-dependent processes conditioned on a climate variable? was developed. The model can effectively eliminate overdispersion?that ...

Abstract: A unified statistical approach to identify suitable structural time series models for annual mean temperature is proposed. This includes a generalized model that can represent all the commonly used structural time series ...

Abstract: This paper is an effort to explore general statistical procedures for validating the interannual variability in ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The authors propose an estimation method for ...

Abstract: Stochastic models fit to time series of daily precipitation amount generally ignore any year-to-year (i.e., low frequency) source of random variation, and such models are known to underestimate the interannual variance of ...

Abstract: A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to study the causes of the predictability of New Zealand seasonal mean rainfall. In terms of predictability, the Southern Oscillation is identified as being ...

Abstract: A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to predict seasonal mean 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. In terms of predictability of both the winter and summer height ...