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RISPacific–East Asian Teleconnection. Part II: How the Philippine Sea Anomalous Anticyclone is Established during El Niño Development
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) conveys impacts of El Niño to east Asian climate during the mature and decay of an El Niño (from the winter to ensuing summer). It is shown that the anomalous PSAC forms in ...
Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: etrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 ...
Predictability and Forecast Skill in NMME
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: orecast skill and potential predictability of 2-m temperature, precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature are assessed using 29 yr of hindcast data from models included in phase 1 of the North American Multimodel ...
SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: From ensembles of 80 AGCM simulations for every December?January?February (DJF) seasonal mean in the 1980?2000 period, interannual variability in atmospheric response to interannual variations in observed sea surface ...
A New Methodology for Estimating the Unpredictable Component of Seasonal Atmospheric Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Predictability limits for seasonal atmospheric climate variability depend on the fraction of variability that is due to factors external to the atmosphere (e.g., boundary conditions) and the fraction that is internal. From ...
Multi-Objective Redundancy Allocation for Multi-State System Design Under Epistemic Uncertainty of Component States
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: Multi-state is a typical characteristic of engineered systems. Most existing studies of redundancy allocation problems (RAPs) for multi-state system (MSS) design assume that the state probabilities of redundant components ...
An Assessment of Errors in the Simulation of Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Uncoupled AGCM Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: For the uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, the quantification of errors due to the lack of coupled ocean?atmospheric evolution on the characteristics of the atmospheric interannual variability ...
Variations of U.S. Regional Precipitation and Simulations by the NCEP CFS: Focus on the Southwest
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Variations of U.S. regional precipitation in both observations and free-run experiments with the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) are investigated. The seasonality of precipitation over the continental United States and ...
ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: Composite Analysis and Validation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractIn this study, precipitation and temperature forecasts during El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are examined in six models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME), including the CFSv2, CanCM3, ...
The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n ordinary regression of predicted versus observed probabilities is presented as a direct and simple procedure for minimizing the Brier score (BS) and improving the attributes diagram. The main example applies to seasonal ...