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RISShort-Range Ensemble Predictions of 2-m Temperature and Dewpoint Temperature over New England
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system created as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pilot program on temperature and air quality forecasting over New England during the summer of 2002 ...
Prediction of Near-Surface Variables at Independent Locations from a Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecasting System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The ability of a multimodel short-range bias-corrected ensemble (BCE) forecasting system, created as part of NOAA?s New England High Resolution Temperature Program during the summer of 2004, to obtain accurate predictions ...
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble ...
Bias-Corrected Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables during the 2005/06 Cool Season
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A postprocessing method initially developed to improve near-surface forecasts from a summertime multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The method, known as the ...
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. ...
Comparison of Single-Parameter and Multiparameter Ensembles for Assimilation of Radar Observations Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: bservational studies indicate that the densities and intercept parameters of hydrometeor distributions can vary widely among storms and even within a single storm. Therefore, assuming a fixed set of microphysical parameters ...
Impact of Phased-Array Radar Observations over a Short Assimilation Period: Observing System Simulation Experiments Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The conventional Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) scans a given weather phenomenon in approximately 5 min, and past results suggest that it takes 30?60 min to establish a storm into a model assimilating ...
Cluster Analysis of Multimodel Ensemble Data over New England
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble of 48-h forecasts from 23 cases during the months of July and August 2002, which was created as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pilot program on temperature and air quality forecasting, ...
Value of Real-Time Vegetation Fraction to Forecasts of Severe Convection in High-Resolution Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Near-real-time values of vegetation fraction are incorporated into a 2-km nested version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model and compared to forecasts from a control run that uses ...
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornado and Flash Flood Event Using a Continuous-Update-Cycle Storm-Scale Ensemble System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: continuous-update-cycle storm-scale ensemble data assimilation (DA) and prediction system using the ARW model and DART software is used to generate retrospective 0?6-h ensemble forecasts of the 31 May 2013 tornado and flash ...