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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Short-Range (0–12 h) PQPFs from Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensembles Using LAPS
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study pioneers the development of short-range (0?12 h) probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) in Taiwan and aims to produce the PQPFs from time-lagged multimodel ensembles using the Local Analysis ...
Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Using Time-Lagged Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A time-lagged ensemble forecast system is developed using a set of hourly initialized Rapid Update Cycle model deterministic forecasts. Both the ensemble-mean and probabilistic forecasts from this time-lagged ensemble ...
Evaluation and Comparison of Microphysical Algorithms in ARW-WRF Model Simulations of Atmospheric River Events Affecting the California Coast
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations were performed by using the Advanced ...
Verification of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States during Winter 2002/03 by the RSM Ensemble System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is used to generate ensemble forecasts over the southwest United States during the 151 days of 1 November 2002 to 31 March 2003. RSM ...
Short-Range Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest United States by the RSM Ensemble System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is used to produce twice-daily (0000 and 1200 UTC), high-resolution ensemble forecasts to 24 h. The forecasts are performed at an ...
Short-Range Precipitation Forecasts from Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensembles during the HMT-West-2006 Campaign
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: High-resolution (3 km) time-lagged (initialized every 3 h) multimodel ensembles were produced in support of the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)-West-2006 campaign in northern California, covering the American River basin ...
Analysis of the Relative Operating Characteristic and Economic Value Using the LAPS Ensemble Prediction System in Taiwan
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: easurement of the usefulness of numerical weather prediction considers not only the forecast quality but also the possible economic value (EV) in the daily decision-making process of users. Discrimination ability of an ...
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with an Artificial Neural Network
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A feed-forward neural network is configured to calibrate the bias of a high-resolution probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) produced by a 12-km version of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) ensemble ...
Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is ...