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RISTropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Using the Early Stage Dvorak Analysis and Global Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTC genesis guidance using the early stage Dvorak analysis technique (EDA) and global ensembles is investigated as one of the statistical?dynamical TC genesis guidance schemes. The EDA is a scheme that enables the ...
Using TIGGE Data to Diagnose Initial Perturbations and Their Growth for Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Ensemble initial perturbations around Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) produced by ECMWF, NCEP, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensembles are compared using The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment ...
WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational NWP Models: A Quarter Century and Beyond
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been compared and verified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) under an intercomparison project of the Working ...
An Observing System Experiment for Typhoon Conson (2004) Using a Singular Vector Method and DOTSTAR Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An Observing System Experiment (OSE) has been performed to investigate the effectiveness of dropwindsonde observations and a sensitivity analysis technique on a typhoon track forecast. Using dropwindsonde observations for ...
Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS) and its performance are described. In February 2008, JMA started an operation of TEPS that was designed for providing skillful tropical cyclone ...
Evaluation of Medium-Range Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n 30 October 2012 Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the U.S. East Coast with a devastating impact. Here the performance of the ECMWF forecasts (both high resolution and ensemble) are evaluated together with ensemble forecasts ...
Singular Vectors for Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortices in a Nondivergent Barotropic Framework
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n this study, singular vectors (SVs) are calculated for tropical cyclone (TC)?like vortices on an f plane and ? plane using a barotropic model, and the structure and time evolution of the SVs are investigated. In the f-plane ...
Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Using Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and Structural Features
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) is a multiple regression model for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity [both central pressure (Pmin) and maximum wind speed (Vmax)]. To further ...
Global Distribution of the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts on Short- to Medium-Range Time Scales
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: perational global medium-range ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity (genesis plus the subsequent track) are systematically evaluated to understand the skill of the state-of-the-art ensembles in forecasting ...
The TIGGE Project and Its Achievements
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was a major component of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact ...