Abstract: Some results of a nationwide survey of National Weather Service forecasters with regard to probability forecasting in general and precipitation probability forecasting in particular are summarized. Specifically, the ...

Abstract: This paper describes the results of an experiment involving credible interval temperature forecasts. A credible interval is an interval of values of the variable of concern, in this case maximum or minimum temperature, ...

Abstract: An experiment was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in St. Louis, Mo., to investigate the ability of forecasters to differentiate among different points in a forecast area with regard to the livelihood ...

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Abstract: This paper describes the preliminary results of three experiments in subjective probability forecasting which were recently conducted in four Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFOs) of the National Weather Service. The ...

Abstract: The case for an operational program involving the formulation and dissemination of probabilistic temperature forecasts is presented. First, the need for information concerning the uncertainty in temperature forecasts is ...

Abstract: Proper scoring rules, such as the probability score, are based (in part) upon the assumption that the assessor's utility function is linearly related to the score. The effects of two nonlinear utility functions, one ...

Abstract: A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: ...

Abstract: An experiment was conducted at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during 1976 and 1977 in which National Weather Service forecasters formulated probabilistic forecasts of several tornado events in conjunction with ...

Abstract: Since a meteorologist's predictions are subjective, a framework for the evaluation of meteorological probability assessors must be consistent with the theory of subjective probability. Such a framework is described in this ...