Search
CSV
RISComparison of Probabilistic Statistical Forecast and Trend Adjustment Methods for North American Seasonal Temperatures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he three multivariate statistical methods of canonical correlation analysis, maximum covariance analysis, and redundancy analysis are compared with respect to their probabilistic accuracy for seasonal forecasts of gridded ...
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Derived from PoPs and Conditional Precipitation Amount Climatologies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFS) for discrete amount classes can be formulated as the product of precipitation probabilities (as issued in PoP forecasts) and the climatological probabilities of ...
On the Combination of Forecast Probabilities for Consecutive Precipitation Periods
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of the method of Hughes and Sangster (1979) for combining precipitation probabilities pertaining to standard 12-h forecast periods is examined for 100 stations in the conterminous United States. Precipitation ...
Rainfall Intensity, the Weibull Distribution, and Estimation of Daily Surface Runoff
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new method for estimating absorption and runoff at a point on the basis of total daily precipitation and the absorption capacity of the soil is proposed. The method is based on a statistical characterization of the ...
Representing Serial Correlation of Meteorological Events and Forecasts in Dynamic Decision–Analytic Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A recursive solution for optimal sequences of decisions given uncertainty in future weather events, and forecasts of those events, is presented. The formulation incorporates a representation of the autocorrelation that is ...
The Calibration Simplex: A Generalization of the Reliability Diagram for Three-Category Probability Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ull exposition of the performance of a set of forecasts requires examination of the joint frequency distribution of those forecasts and their corresponding observations. In settings involving probability forecasts, this ...
Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Gamma Distribution Using Data Containing Zeros
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A method for fitting parameters of the gamma distribution to data containing some zero values using maximum likelihood methods is presented. The procedure is based on a conceptual model of the data having resulted from a ...
Statistical Significance of Long-Range “Optimal Climate Normal” Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A simple approach to long-range forecasting of monthly or seasonal quantities is as the average of observations over some number of the most recent years. Finding this ?optimal climate normal? (OCN) involves examining the ...
Performance of Alternative “Normals” for Tracking Climate Changes, Using Homogenized and Nonhomogenized Seasonal U.S. Surface Temperatures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: leven alternatives to the annually updated 30-yr average for specifying climate ?normals? are considered for the purpose of projecting nonstationarity in the mean U.S. temperature climate during 2006?12. Comparisons are ...
Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are ...