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RISPredicting the Onset of the North Australian Wet Season with the POAMA Dynamical Prediction System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: forecast product focusing on the onset of the north Australian wet season using a dynamical ocean?atmosphere model is developed and verified. Onset is defined to occur when a threshold rainfall accumulation of 50 mm is ...
Modulation of South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The subseasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis by large-scale atmospheric wave modes is studied using data from the south Indian Ocean region. The modes considered are the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO), and ...
Statistical Prediction of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A statistical prediction scheme, employing logistic regression, is developed to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation in zones of the Southern Hemisphere during forthcoming weeks. Through physical ...
Some Space–Time Spectral Analyses of Tropical Convection and Planetary-Scale Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Three aspects of space?time spectral analysis are explored for diagnosis of the organization of tropical convection by the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and other equatorial wave modes: 1) definition of the background ...
An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A seasonally independent index for monitoring the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is described. It is based on a pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined fields of near-equatorially averaged 850-hPa ...
A Comparison of Dynamical and Statistical Predictions of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system to predict the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Southern Hemisphere during weekly periods has been evaluated and ...
Mechanisms Linking Global 5-Day Waves to Tropical Convection
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractReanalysis data and satellite-derived rainfall measurements are examined to determine possible mechanisms linking the ?5 day? Rossby?Haurwitz wave to localized variations of tropical convection. The mechanisms in ...
Diagnosis of the MJO Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using an Empirical Index
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The modulation of tropical cyclone activity by the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. Composite anomalies of the genesis index associated with the different MJO ...
Association of Convection with the 5-Day Rossby–Haurwitz Wave
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he seasonality, regionality, and nature of the association between tropical convection and the 5-day wavenumber-1 Rossby?Haurwitz wave are examined. Spectral coherences between daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), a ...
The Role of Equatorial Rossby Waves in Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Idealized Numerical Simulations in an Initially Quiescent Background Environment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This two-part series of papers examines the role of equatorial Rossby (ER) waves in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. To do this, a unique initialization procedure is utilized to insert n = 1 ER waves into a numerical model ...