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RISThe Impact of Assimilating Surface Pressure Observations on Severe Weather Events in a WRF Mesoscale Ensemble System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Surface pressure observations are assimilated into a Weather Research and Forecast ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach and the results are compared with observations for two severe weather events. ...
The Effect of Mesoscale Heterogeneity on the Genesis and Structure of Mesovortices within Quasi-Linear Convective Systems
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study examines the structure and evolution of quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) within complex mesoscale environments. Convective outflows and other mesoscale features appear to affect the rotational characteristics ...
Radar and Damage Analysis of Severe Bow Echoes Observed during BAMEX
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study examines damaging-wind production by bow-shaped convective systems, commonly referred to as bow echoes. Recent idealized numerical simulations suggest that, in addition to descending rear inflow at the bow echo ...
Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4?5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, ...
Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filter–Based Forecasts to Traditional Ensemble and Deterministic Forecasts for a Case Study of Banded Snow
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique is compared to other modeling approaches for a case study of banded snow. The forecasts include a 12- and 3-km grid-spaced deterministic forecast (D12 and D3), a 12-km 30-member ...
Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial-Condition Resolution
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractObservational and model resolution limitations currently preclude analysis of the smallest scales important to numerical prediction of convective storms. These missing scales can be recovered if the forecast model ...
Application of a WRF Mesoscale Data Assimilation System to Springtime Severe Weather Events 2007–09
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n ensemble-based data assimilation system using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) has been used to initialize forecasts of prolific severe weather events from springs 2007 to 2009. These experiments build ...
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part I: Radar Data Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his first part of a two-part study on storm-scale radar and satellite data assimilation provides an overview of a multicase study conducted as part of the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project. The NSSL Experimental WoF ...
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts for the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in Alabama
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: s part of NOAA?s Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) initiative, a multiscale ensemble-based assimilation and prediction system is developed using the WRF-ARW model and DART assimilation software. To evaluate the capabilities of the ...
Buyer Beware: Some Words of Caution on the Use of Severe Wind Reports in Postevent Assessment and Research
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Postevent damage surveys conducted during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment demonstrate that the severe thunderstorm wind reports in Storm Data served as a poor characterization of the actual scope ...