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Diagnosis and Short-Lead Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall in Tropical North Africa at Interannual and Multidecadal Timescales
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The summer climate of tropical North Africa exhibits strong decadal variability (the low frequency, LF) and also substantial variability within the decadal regimes (the high frequency, HF). Statistical analyses on raw ...
Provisionally Corrected Surface Wind Data, Worldwide Ocean-Atmosphere Surface Fields, and Sahellan Rainfall Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Worldwide ship datasets of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and surface vector wind are analyzed for a July-September composite of five Sabelian wet years (1950, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1958) minus five ...
Pattern Analysis of SST-Forced Variability in Ensemble GCM Simulations: Examples over Europe and the Tropical Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) generates a rich dataset. The main aim here is to advocate and demonstrate an approach to skill and ...
Future Occurrence of Threshold-Crossing Seasonal Rainfall Totals: Methodology and Application to Sites in Africa
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A statistical simulation framework is developed to explore the future frequencies of threshold-crossing events, focusing here on low seasonal rainfall totals. Global change (GC) is represented by a trend on the seasonal ...
Near-Surface Wind over the Global Ocean 1949–1988
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Near-surface wind over the ocean is a key variable for studies of climate variability and change. Millions of ship reports of near-surface wind are now held in computerized datasets like the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere ...
Reduction of Model Systematic Error by Statistical Correction for Dynamical Seasonal Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA) is used to analyze an ensemble of three 34-yr general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature. It is demonstrated how statistical ...
East African Rainfall and the Tropical Circulation/Convection on Intraseasonal to Interannual Timescales
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: It is known that the East African short rains (October?December, OND) have a positive correlation with El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A prediction scheme based on sea surface temperature eigenvectors (SST EOFs) ...
Climate Variability and Corn Yields in Semiarid Ceará, Brazil
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Understanding of climate influence on crop yields can help in the design of policies to reduce climate-related vulnerability in many parts of the world, including the target of this case study?the state of Ceará, Brazil. ...
Weather Types and Rainfall over Senegal. Part I: Observational Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A k-means cluster analysis is used to summarize unfiltered daily atmospheric variability at regional scale over the western Sahel and eastern tropical North Atlantic during the boreal summer season [July?September (JAS)] ...
Weather Types and Rainfall over Senegal. Part II: Downscaling of GCM Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Four methods of downscaling daily rainfall sequences from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are intercompared over Senegal, using a 13-station network of daily observations during July?September 1961?98. The local ...