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RISMonthly Forecasting at ECMWF
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A monthly forecasting system based on 32-day coupled ocean?atmosphere integrations has been set up at ECMWF. This system has run routinely since March 2002 every 2 weeks, and 45 cases from March 2002 to December 2003 have ...
Short-Range and Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in the Extratropics during Wintertime with and without an Interactive Ocean
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The ECMWF monthly forecasting system is used to investigate the impact that an interactive ocean has on short-range and medium-range weather predictions in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during wintertime. On a ...
Dynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The 15-member ensembles of 46-day dynamical forecasts starting on each 15 May from 1991 to 2007 have been produced, using the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System monthly forecasting system (VarEPS-monthy). ...
Can the Direct Effect of Aerosols Improve Subseasonal Predictability?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe fact that aerosols are important players in Earth?s radiation balance is well accepted by the scientific community. Several studies have shown the importance of characterizing aerosols in order to constrain ...
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms Using Coupled GCM Integrations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System, based on ensembles of 200-day coupled GCM integrations, contains tropical disturbances that are referred to as model tropical storms in the present paper. Model tropical storms display ...
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall over Mozambique
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The 2000 tropical cyclone season over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) was exceptional in terms of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. Observed data suggest that SIO tropical cyclones have a track significantly more ...
Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: It has recently been demonstrated that model output statistics (MOS) computed from a long retrospective dataset of ensemble ?reforecasts? from a single model can significantly improve the skill of probabilistic week-2 ...
A Comparison of Dynamical and Statistical Predictions of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system to predict the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Southern Hemisphere during weekly periods has been evaluated and ...
Improving and Promoting Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Monthly Forecast of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Using a Coupled GCM
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean?Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system ...