Abstract: In data assimilation, observations are combined with the dynamics to get an estimate of the actual state of a natural system. The knowledge of the dynamics, under the form of a model, is unavoidably incomplete and model ...

Abstract: xtended logistic regression is used to calibrate areal precipitation forecasts over two small catchments in Belgium computed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System ...

Abstract: A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is ...

Abstract: he ensemble spread is often used as a measure of forecast quality or uncertainty. However, it is not clear whether the spread is a good measure of uncertainty and how the spread?error relationship can be properly assessed. ...

Abstract: AbstractForecasts from numerical weather prediction models suffer from systematic and nonsystematic errors, which originate from various sources such as subgrid-scale variability affecting large scales. Statistical ...