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RISDiagnosis of the Downstream Ridging Associated with Extratropical Transition Using Short-Term Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The dynamical mechanisms that led to downstream ridging during the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoons Tokage and Nabi are evaluated using data drawn from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter coupled with the Weather ...
Evaluation of Atmosphere and Ocean Initial Condition Uncertainty and Stochastic Exchange Coefficients on Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are impacted by errors in atmosphere and ocean initial conditions and the model formulation, which motivates using an ensemble approach. This study evaluates the impact of uncertainty ...
Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis Applied to African Easterly Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) coupled to the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to generate ensemble analyses and forecasts of a strong African easterly wave (AEW) ...
The Impact of Targeted Dropwindsonde Observations on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts of Four Weak Systems during PREDICT
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he value of assimilating targeted dropwindsonde observations meant to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts is evaluated using data collected during the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics ...
Performance of a Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) during the NOAA High-Resolution Hurricane Test
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) combined with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF; hereafter WRF) on a 36-km Atlantic basin domain is cycled over six different time periods that include ...
Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Information
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ith the growing use of tropical cyclone (TC) best-track information for weather and climate applications, it is important to understand the uncertainties that are contained in the TC position and intensity information. ...
The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl?s (2010) genesis ...
Validation of HWRF-Based Probabilistic TC Wind and Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Initial Condition Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transitions Determined Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to generate ensemble analyses and forecasts for the extratropical transition (ET) events associated with Typhoons Tokage (2004) ...
The Influence of Shallow Convection on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ccurate tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts depend on having skillful numerical model predictions of the environmental wind field. Given that wind and temperature are related through thermal wind balance, structural ...