Abstract: Seasons are the complex nonlinear response of the physical climate system to regular annual solar forcing. There is no a priori reason why they should remain fixed/invariant from year to year, as is often assumed in climate ...

Abstract: The Brier score is widely used for the verification of probability forecasts. It also forms the basis of other frequently used probability scores such as the rank probability score. By conditioning (stratifying) on the ...

Abstract: This study presents various statistical methods for exploring and summarizing spatial extremal properties in large gridpoint datasets. Extremal properties are inferred from the subset of gridpoint values that exceed ...

Abstract: This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has ...

Abstract: A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime (October?March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasigeostrophic theory ...

Abstract: The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is the net result of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances, many of which are extremely intense. Sporadic systems often bring extreme amounts of rain over only a few days, which can have ...

Abstract: This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that ...