Abstract: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) strongly modifies the structure of surface fronts; yet standard theories of frontogenesis ignore the PBL. As a first step toward understanding the effects of the PBL on frontogenesis, ...

Abstract: Explanations of error growth in atmospheric flows are often based on the extension of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities from steady parallel flows to weakly nonparallel and time-dependent flows. Consideration of ...

Abstract: In a seminal paper, E. N. Lorenz proposed that flows with many scales of motion in which smaller-scale error spreads to larger scales and in which the error-doubling time decreases with decreasing scale have a finite range ...

Abstract: A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) algorithm is compared to an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for the assimilation of radar data at the convective scale. Using a cloud-resolving model, simulated, ...

Abstract: our model-error schemes for probabilistic forecasts over the contiguous United States with the WRF-ARW mesoscale ensemble system are evaluated in regard to performance. Including a model-error representation leads to ...

Abstract: multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes ...