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RISTornado-Resolving Ensemble and Probabilistic Predictions of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore EF5 Tornado
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAn ensemble of 10 forecasts is produced for the 20 May 2013 Newcastle?Moore EF5 tornado and its parent supercell using a horizontal grid spacing of 50 m, nested within ensemble forecasts with 500-m horizontal grid ...
Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study examines the ability of a storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to predict precipitation and mesovortices within a tornadic mesoscale convective system that occurred over Oklahoma on 8?9 May 2007, ...
Analysis of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective Vortex Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of CASA X-Band and WSR-88D Radar Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ne of the goals of the National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center (ERC) for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) is to improve storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) by collecting ...
Multiscale EnKF Assimilation of Radar and Conventional Observations and Ensemble Forecasting for a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n recent studies, the authors have successfully demonstrated the ability of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), assimilating real radar observations, to produce skillful analyses and subsequent ensemble-based probabilistic ...
Explicit Ensemble Prediction of Hail in 19 May 2013 Oklahoma City Thunderstorms and Analysis of Hail Growth Processes with Several Multimoment Microphysics Schemes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractHail forecast evaluations provide important insight into microphysical treatment of rimed ice. In this study we evaluate explicit 0?90-min EnKF-based storm-scale (500-m horizontal grid spacing) hail forecasts for ...
Prediction and Ensemble Forecast Verification of Hail in the Supercell Storms of 20 May 2013
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: espite recent advances in storm-scale ensemble NWP, short-term (0?90 min) explicit forecasts of severe hail remain a major challenge as a result of the fast evolution and short time scales of hail-producing convective ...
Spring and Summer Severe Weather Reports over the Midwest as a Function of Convective Mode: A Preliminary Study
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Radar data during the period 1 April?31 August 2002 were used to classify all convective storms occurring in a 10-state region of the central United States into nine predominant morphologies, and the severe weather reports ...
Ensemble Hail Prediction for the Storms of 10 May 2010 in South-Central Oklahoma Using Single- and Double-Moment Microphysical Schemes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractExplicit prediction of hail using numerical weather prediction models remains a significant challenge; microphysical uncertainties and errors are a significant contributor to this challenge. This study assesses the ...
Forecasting the 8 May 2017 Severe Hail Storm in Denver, Colorado, at a Convection-Allowing Resolution: Understanding Rimed Ice Treatments in Multimoment Microphysics Schemes and Their Effects on Hail Size Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractDay-ahead (20?22 h) 3-km grid spacing convection-allowing model forecasts are performed for a severe hail event that occurred in Denver, Colorado, on 8 May 2017 using six different multimoment microphysics (MP) ...
Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Observations for the 20 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornadic Supercell Case
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractReal polarimetric radar observations are directly assimilated for the first time using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for a supercell case from 20 May 2013 in Oklahoma. A double-moment microphysics scheme and ...