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Multiple Regimes in Northern Hemisphere Height Fields via MixtureModel Clustering
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A mixture model is a flexible probability density estimation technique, consisting of a linear combination of k component densities. Such a model is applied to estimate clustering in Northern Hemisphere (NH) 700-mb ...
Downscaling of Daily Rainfall Occurrence over Northeast Brazil Using a Hidden Markov Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A hidden Markov model (HMM) is used to describe daily rainfall occurrence at 10 gauge stations in the state of Ceará in northeast Brazil during the February?April wet season 1975?2002. The model assumes that rainfall ...
A Bayesian Hidden Markov Model of Daily Precipitation over South and East Asia
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) for climate downscaling of multisite daily precipitation is presented. A generalized linear model (GLM) component allows exogenous variables to directly influence the distributional ...
A Bayesian Framework for Storm Tracking Using a Hidden-State Representation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A probabilistic tracking model is introduced that identifies storm tracks from feature vectors that are extracted from meteorological analysis data. The model assumes that the genesis and lysis times of each track are ...
Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part I: General Properties
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new probabilistic clustering technique, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone trajectories in the western North Pacific. Each component of the mixture model consists of a quadratic ...
Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of ...
Graph-guided regularized regression of Pacific Ocean climate variables to increase predictive skill of southwestern US winter precipitation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Understanding the physical drivers of seasonal hydroclimatic variability and improving predictive skill remains a challenge with important socioeconomic and environmental implications for many regions around the world. ...
Detecting the ITCZ in Instantaneous Satellite Data using Spatiotemporal Statistical Modeling: ITCZ Climatology in the East Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A Markov random field (MRF) statistical model is introduced, developed, and validated for detecting the east Pacific intertropical convergence zone in instantaneous satellite data from May through October. The MRF statistical ...