Abstract: n a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ...

Abstract: he application of forecast ensembles to probabilistic weather prediction has spurred considerable interest in their evaluation. Such ensembles are commonly interpreted as Monte Carlo ensembles meaning that the ensemble ...

Abstract: he skill of weather and climate forecast systems is often assessed by calculating the correlation coefficient between past forecasts and their verifying observations. Improvements in forecast skill can thus be quantified ...

Abstract: redictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain because of limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that ...