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RISLong-Range Niño-3.4 Predictions Using Pairwise Dynamic Combinations of Multiple Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The interest in climate prediction has seen a rise in the number of modeling alternatives in recent years. One way to reduce the predictive uncertainty from any such modeling procedure is to combine or average the modeled ...
Measurement of GCM Skill in Predicting Variables Relevant for Hydroclimatological Assessments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Simulations from general circulation models are now being used for a variety of studies and purposes. With up to 23 different GCMs now available, it is desirable to determine whether a specific variable from a particular ...
An Upper Limit to Seasonal Rainfall Predictability?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The asymptotic predictability of global land surface precipitation is estimated empirically at the seasonal time scale with lead times from 0 to 12 months. Predictability is defined as the unbiased estimate of predictive ...
Probabilistic Estimation of Multivariate Streamflow Using Independent Component Analysis and Climate Information
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A statistical estimation approach is presented and applied to multiple reservoir inflow series that form part of Sydney?s water supply system. The approach involves first identifying sources of interannual and interdecadal ...
A Comparison of Australian Open Water Body Evaporation Trends for Current and Future Climates Estimated from Class A Evaporation Pans and General Circulation Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Trends of decreasing pan evaporation around the world have renewed interest in evaporation and its behavior in a warming world. Observed pan evaporation around Australia has been modeled to attribute changes in its constituent ...
Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts Using a Pairwise Dynamic Combination Approach
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper dynamically combined three multivariate forecasts where spatially and temporally variant combination weights are estimated using a nearest-neighbor approach. The case study presented combines forecasts from three ...
A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross-Dependence across Multiple Time Scales: Implications for Downscaling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: novel multivariate quantile-matching nesting bias correction approach is developed to remove systematic biases in general circulation model (GCM) outputs over multiple time scales. This is a significant advancement over ...
Application of Scaling in Radar Reflectivity for Correcting Range-Dependent Bias in Climatological Radar Rainfall Estimates
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper presents a method to correct for the range-dependent bias in radar reflectivity that is a result of partial beam filling and of the increase in observation volume with range. The scaling behavior of reflectivity ...
Can Bias Correction of Regional Climate Model Lateral Boundary Conditions Improve Low-Frequency Rainfall Variability?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractGlobal climate model simulations inherently contain multiple biases that, when used as boundary conditions for regional climate models, have the potential to produce poor downscaled simulations. Removing these ...
Integrating Ocean Subsurface Temperatures in Statistical ENSO Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Subsurface characteristics of oceans have recently become of interest to climate modelers. Here subsurface information has been linked to the evolution of the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a simple statistical ...