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    Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2018:;volume 076:;issue 003:;page 757
    Author(s): Selz, Tobias
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Global model simulations together with a stochastic convection scheme are used to assess the intrinsic limit of predictability that originates from convection up to planetary scales. The stochastic convection scheme has ...
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    Upscale Error Growth in a High-Resolution Simulation of a Summertime Weather Event over Europe 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 003:;page 813
    Author(s): Selz, Tobias; Craig, George C.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he growth of small-amplitude, spatially uncorrelated perturbations has been studied in a weather forecast of a 4-day period in the summer of 2007, using a large domain covering Europe and the eastern Atlantic and with ...
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    Structure Function Analysis of Water Vapor Simulated with a Convection-Permitting Model and Comparison to Airborne Lidar Observations 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2017:;Volume( 074 ):;issue: 004:;page 1201
    Author(s): Selz, Tobias;Fischer, Lucas;Craig, George C.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe spatial scale dependence of midlatitude water vapor variability in the high-resolution limited-area model COSMO is evaluated using diagnostics of scaling behavior. Past analysis of airborne lidar measurements ...
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    Convective and Slantwise Trajectory Ascent in Convection-Permitting Simulations of Midlatitude Cyclones 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2016:;volume( 144 ):;issue: 010:;page 3961
    Author(s): Rasp, Stephan; Selz, Tobias; Craig, George C.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: ir parcel ascent in midlatitude cyclones driven by latent heat release has been investigated using convection-permitting simulations together with an online trajectory calculation scheme. Three cyclones were simulated to ...
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    Variability and Clustering of Midlatitude Summertime Convection: Testing the Craig and Cohen Theory in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble with Stochastic Boundary Layer Perturbations 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2017:;volume 075:;issue 002:;page 691
    Author(s): Rasp, Stephan; Selz, Tobias; Craig, George C.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe statistical theory of convective variability developed by Craig and Cohen in 2006 has provided a promising foundation for the design of stochastic parameterizations. The simplifying assumptions of this theory, ...
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    Estimation of the Variability of Mesoscale Energy Spectra with Three Years of COSMO-DE Analyses 

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2018:;volume 076:;issue 002:;page 627
    Author(s): Selz, Tobias; Bierdel, Lotte; Craig, George C.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Research on the mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum over the past few decades has focused on finding a dynamical mechanism that gives rise to a universal spectral slope. Here we investigate the variability of the spectrum ...
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    Quantitative View on the Processes Governing the Upscale Error Growth up to the Planetary Scale Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2019:;volume 147:;issue 005:;page 1713
    Author(s): Baumgart, Marlene; Ghinassi, Paolo; Wirth, Volkmar; Selz, Tobias; Craig, George C.; Riemer, Michael
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractTwo diagnostics based on potential vorticity and the envelope of Rossby waves are used to investigate upscale error growth from a dynamical perspective. The diagnostics are applied to several cases of global, ...
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