Abstract: nsemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into ...

Abstract: Ensemble streamflow prediction systems produce forecasts in the form of a conditional probability distribution for a continuous forecast variable. A distributions-oriented approach is presented for verification of these ...

Abstract: For probability forecasts, the Brier score and Brier skill score are commonly used verification measures of forecast accuracy and skill. Using sampling theory, analytical expressions are derived to estimate their sampling ...

Abstract: The distributions-oriented approach to forecast verification uses an estimate of the joint distribution of forecasts and observations to evaluate forecast quality. However, small verification data samples can produce ...