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RISReproducing the September 2013 Record-Breaking Rainfall over the Colorado Front Range with High-Resolution WRF Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: our convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts were produced in an attempt to replicate the record-breaking rainfall across the Colorado Front Range between 1200 UTC 11 September and 1200 ...
A Comparison of Methods Used to Populate Neighborhood-Based Contingency Tables for High-Resolution Forecast Verification
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: s high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are now commonplace, ?neighborhood? verification metrics are regularly employed to evaluate forecast quality. These neighborhood approaches relax the requirement that ...
Improving Large-Domain Convection-Allowing Forecasts with High-Resolution Analyses and Ensemble Data Assimilation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nalyses with 20-km horizontal grid spacing were produced from continuously cycling three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), ensemble square root Kalman filter (EnSRF), and ?hybrid? variational?ensemble data assimilation (DA) ...
Convection-Permitting Forecasts Initialized with Continuously Cycling Limited-Area 3DVAR, Ensemble Kalman Filter, and “Hybrid” Variational–Ensemble Data Assimilation Systems
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nalyses with 20-km horizontal grid spacing were produced from parallel continuously cycling three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), ensemble square root Kalman filter (EnSRF), and ?hybrid? variational?ensemble data assimilation ...
Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts with a Variable-Resolution Global Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTwo sets of global, 132-h (5.5-day), 10-member ensemble forecasts were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for 35 cases in April and May 2017. One MPAS ensemble had a quasi-uniform 15-km ...
Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Neighborhood approaches? have been used in two primary ways to post-process and verify high-resolution ensemble output. While the two methods appear deceptively similar, they in fact define events over different spatial ...
Sensitivity of Limited-Area Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts to Ensemble Perturbation Resolution
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ual-resolution (DR) hybrid variational-ensemble analysis capability was implemented within the community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model data assimilation (DA) system, which is designed for limited-area ...
Impact of Assimilating Microwave Radiances with a Limited-Area Ensemble Data Assimilation System on Forecasts of Typhoon Morakot
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo parallel experiments were designed to evaluate whether assimilating microwave radiances with a cyclic, limited-area ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) could improve track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts ...
Impact of Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances on Forecasts of 2008 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Initialized with a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he impact of assimilating radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on forecasts of several tropical cyclones (TCs) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and a ...