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RISStatistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts by Fitting Censored, Shifted Gamma Distributions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: parametric statistical postprocessing method is presented that transforms raw (and frequently biased) ensemble forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) into reliable predictive probability distributions ...
Variogram-Based Proper Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: roper scoring rules provide a theoretically principled framework for the quantitative assessment of the predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts. While a wide selection of such scoring rules for univariate quantities ...
Improving Ensemble Weather Prediction System Initialization: Disentangling the Contributions from Model Systematic Errors and Initial Perturbation Size
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Spatial Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts for Temperature Using Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Regression
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: tatistical postprocessing techniques are commonly used to improve the skill of ensembles from numerical weather forecasts. This paper considers spatial extensions of the well-established nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression ...
Precipitation Downscaling with Gibbs Sampling: An Improved Method for Producing Realistic, Weather-Dependent, and Anisotropic Fields
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Predicting Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Using NOAA and ECMWF Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
A Multi-Temporal-Scale Modulation Mechanism for the Postprocessing of Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Benefits for Streamflow Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Comparison of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Two Postprocessing Mechanisms
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis article compares the skill of medium-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) generated via two postprocessing mechanisms: 1) the mixed-type meta-Gaussian distribution (MMGD) model and ...
Probabilistic Precipitation-Type Forecasting Based on GEFS Ensemble Forecasts of Vertical Temperature Profiles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Bayesian classification method for probabilistic forecasts of precipitation type is presented. The method considers the vertical wet-bulb temperature profiles associated with each precipitation type, transforms them into ...
Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using GEFS Reforecasts and Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analyses
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nalog postprocessing methods have previously been applied using precipitation reforecasts and analyses to improve probabilistic forecast skill and reliability. A modification to a previously documented analog procedure is ...