Abstract: Droughts and persistent wet spells over the United States and northwest Mexico have preferred regions of occurrence and persistence. Wet or dry conditions that persist more than 1 yr tend to occur over the interior United ...

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Abstract: The NMC Barotropic-Mesh Model has been used to test a statistical correction procedure, designated as M-II, that was developed in Schemm et al. In the present application, statistical corrections at 12 h resulted in ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: Composites based on observations and model outputs from the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) drought experiments were used to examine the impact of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic ...

Abstract: The relationship between predictability and persistence is examined using a realistic two-level general circulation model (GCM). Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from ...

Abstract: Using the NCEP?DOE reanalysis (R-2) soil wetness and the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System, seasonal predictability of the soil moisture and near-surface temperature, and the role of land surface initial conditions are examined. ...

Abstract: A new method for performing Monte Carlo forecasts is introduced. The method, called dynamic stratification, selects initial perturbations based on a stratification of the error distribution. A simple implementation is ...

Abstract: tmosphere?land?ocean coupled model simulations are examined to diagnose the ability of models to simulate drought and persistent wet spells over the United States. A total of seven models are selected for this study. They ...

Abstract: In this case study the role of global SST anomaly forcing in promoting the extreme climatic conditions that prevailed in Africa during the years of 1950 and 1973 is examined. In 1950 abundant rainfall was observed over ...