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RISCorrecting Errors in Streamflow Forecast Ensemble Mean and Spread
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: When hydrological models are used for probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework, the deterministic components of the approach can lead to errors in the estimation of forecast ...
Comparison of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Two Postprocessing Mechanisms
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis article compares the skill of medium-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) generated via two postprocessing mechanisms: 1) the mixed-type meta-Gaussian distribution (MMGD) model and ...
HEPEX: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) is an international project to advance technologies for hydrological forecasting. Its goal is ?to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities ...
Calibration and Downscaling Methods for Quantitative Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two approaches for downscaling and calibrating error estimates from ensemble precipitation forecasts are evaluated; the two methods are intended to be used to produce flood forecasts based on global weather forecasts in ...
A Framework for Diagnosing Seasonal Prediction through Canonical Event Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ydrologic extremes in the form of flood and drought have large impacts on society that can be reduced through preparations made possible by seasonal prediction. However, the skill of seasonal predictions from global climate ...
Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003?07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European ...
Comparative Evaluation of Three Schaake Shuffle Schemes in Postprocessing GEFS Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractNatural weather systems possess certain spatiotemporal variability and correlations. Preserving these spatiotemporal properties is a significant challenge in postprocessing ensemble weather forecasts. To address ...
The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: tional Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a short- to long-range Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). The HEFS addresses the need to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts for flood risk management, water ...
Multiscale Variability of the River Runoff System in China and Its Long-Term Link to Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This is an exploratory study to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of east China?s (EC) river runoff and their relationship with precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the continental scale. ...
Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time ...