Abstract: The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for policy-relevant quantities such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that ...

Abstract: uture climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by ...

Abstract: redictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain because of limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that ...