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RISNew Probabilistic Forecast Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Hurricane Center currently employs a skillful probabilistic rapid intensification index (RII) based on linear discriminant analysis of the environmental and satellite-derived features from the Statistical ...
Intensity and Structure Changes during Hurricane Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: flight-level aircraft dataset consisting of 79 Atlantic basin hurricanes from 1977 to 2007 was used to develop an unprecedented climatology of inner-core intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement ...
Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, Land Use Impacts on Thunderstorms
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A storm-resolving version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is executed over St. Louis, Missouri, on 8 June 1999, along with sophisticated boundary conditions, to simulate the urban atmosphere and its role in ...
Large-Eddy Simulations of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer at Landfall in an Idealized Urban Environment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Tropical Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: geostationary satellite?derived cloud product that is based on a tropical-overshooting-top (TOT) detection algorithm is described for applications over tropical oceans. TOTs are identified using a modified version of a ...
Internal Control of Hurricane Intensity Variability: The Dual Nature of Potential Vorticity Mixing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In hurricane eyewalls, the vertical stretching effect tends to produce an annular ring of high vorticity. Idealized, unforced nondivergent barotropic model results have suggested such rings of vorticity are often barotropically ...
The Roles of an Expanding Wind Field and Inertial Stability in Tropical Cyclone Secondary Eyewall Formation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Weather and Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in a tropical cyclone (TC) on the ? plane. The simulated SEF process is accompanied by an outward expansion of kinetic ...
Improvements in the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with Passive Microwave Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins is examined here using a series of logistic regression models trained on environmental and ...
Rapid Filamentation Zones in Intense Tropical Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Intense tropical cyclones often possess relatively little convection around their cores. In radar composites, this surrounding region is usually echo-free or contains light stratiform precipitation. While subsidence is ...
Hurricane Eyewall Replacement Cycle Thermodynamics and the Relict Inner Eyewall Circulation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: light-level aircraft data are used to examine inner-core thermodynamic changes during eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) and the role of the relict inner eyewall circulation on the evolution of a hurricane during and following ...