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Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount ...
A Laboratory Study of the Benefits of Including Uncertainty Information in Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Modern operational methods of numerical weather prediction, such as ?ensemble forecasting,? allow assessments of state-dependent predictability to be made. This means that forecast-specific estimates of the forecast standard ...