Abstract: Atmospheric model results suggest that chaotic weather systems in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes can trigger ?breaks? in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Indeed, the mechanism may be able to trigger a more general break ...

Abstract: n 1884, Peirce proposed a new two-category score for deterministic forecasts. The score was motivated by the desire to estimate the number of correct forecasts based on sound reasoning, without being sensitive to the ...

Abstract: A time-dependent primitive equation model with specified zonal flow, mountains, and diabatic heating is described. The model is used to investigate the effects of mountains, diabatic heating, and the nonlinear interactions ...

Abstract: curate data can serve the numerical weather prediction, climate prediction, and atmospheric reanalysis communities by better enabling the diagnosis of model error through the careful examination of the diagnostics of data ...

Abstract: Operational probabilistic (ensemble) forecasts made at ECMWF during the European summer heat wave of 2003 indicate significant skill on medium (3?10 day) and monthly (10?30 day) time scales. A more general ?unified? analysis ...

Abstract: The model developed and tested in Part I of this paper is used to investigate the mechanisms that sustain the low-level East African jet. The East African Highlands and a land/sea contrast in surface friction are shown to ...

Abstract: recipitation forecasts from five global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against rain gauge observations using the new stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS) score. It is based on a 3 ? ...

Abstract: AbstractGlobal climate models (GCMs) exhibit stronger mean easterly zonal surface wind stress and near-surface winds in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) trade winds than observationally constrained reanalyses or other observational ...

Abstract: A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance ...

Abstract: nge weather prediction has become more skillful over recent decades, but forecast centers still suffer from occasional very poor forecasts, which are often referred to as ?dropouts? or ?busts.? This study focuses on European ...