Search
Now showing items 1-10 of 12
Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to ?1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid ...
The Surprising Role of Orography in the Initiation of an Isolated Thunderstorm in Southern England
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Many factors, both mesoscale and larger scale, often come together in order for a particular convective initiation to take place. The authors describe a modeling study of a case from the Convective Storms Initiation Project ...
Realism of Rainfall in a Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in ...
Predictability of Frontal Waves and Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in the 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble ...
A Spatial View of Ensemble Spread in Convection Permitting Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ith movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To ...
The Value of High-Resolution Met Office Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of Multihourly Precipitation Extremes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: xtreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km ...
Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Convection over the United Kingdom
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified ...
What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ABSTRACTForecasting convective rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. The use of convection-permitting (CP) forecast models in the tropics has lagged behind the midlatitudes, despite ...
Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: egional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12?50-km resolution, ...
Greater Future U.K. Winter Precipitation Increase in New Convection-Permitting Scenarios
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: For the first time, a model at a resolution on par with operational weather forecast models has been used for national climate scenarios. An ensemble of 12 climate change projections at convection-permitting (2.2 km) scale ...