Abstract: The effects of observation errors on rank histograms and reliability diagrams are investigated using a perfect model approach. The three-variable Lorenz-63 model was used to simulate an idealized ensemble prediction system ...

Abstract: AbstractEarly awareness of extreme precipitation can provide the time necessary to make adequate event preparations. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that condenses the forecast ...

Abstract: recipitation forecasts from five global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against rain gauge observations using the new stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS) score. It is based on a 3 ? ...

Abstract: A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance ...